Although another four confirmed cases are believed to be associated with outbreaks, contact tracers were unable to establish an explicit relationship.
“This could also be a Superspreader or Superspreader event … and only facilities like casual contact or Chadstone public toilets could have contributed to this transmission.” Said Professor Sutton.
Professor Bennett does not exclude the prime minister from extending until summer to prevent large numbers of people from gathering on crowded beaches.The five-kilometer rule says that even with such a small number of cases, the spread of the virus must be stopped. Stated.
“Most of our cases, over 90%, have been associated with clusters and outbreaks in the last few weeks, and the Butcher Club’s current case shows that the 5km rule is not effective in the workplace. “Professor Bennett said.
“Even if one of these secondary incidents passed through before entering the quarantine, it doesn’t matter if they went to Woolworths 3km or 8km away. They are no longer where the outbreak began. Not. “
She said the government’s focus should shift from strict restrictions such as movement restrictions to better tracking and containment of close secondary contacts.
“If the number of cases is so small, there is a real opportunity to be absolutely accurate,” she said.
Melbourne requires an average of less than 5 and less than 5 mystery cases for 14 days over the same period to relax the October 19th limit.
The city’s 14-day rolling average fell to 11.9 on Sunday, but Professor Sutton said the mysterious case was “always a concern.” The public health team has identified three new mysterious cases with zip codes 3145, 3023, and 3091.
Professor Sutton said he was “absolutely” worried about the stagnation of the decline in active cases today, but the fewer cases of care for the elderly, the more they should be able to reduce in the next few days.
In the two weeks from September 18th to October 1st, the Department of Health and Human Services identified an average of 13 mysterious cases in Melbourne’s big cities and 9 in Victoria.
“A single case of unknown acquisition, I don’t know what it represents, but it could represent five true cases, and I don’t know where it came from, so 10 or 15 true. It may represent the case of, “said Chief Health Officer.
Professor Sutton said the Chadstone cluster is a “significant” lesson, and in Victoria, where there are only three active cases, risks remain for essential workers traveling between the region and the big cities of Melbourne. He said he was.
Victoria recorded 12 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, killing one. Six of the twelve were related to outbreaks. Three at Butcher Club and three at Ashwood’s Electra Park Medical Center. The other six cases are under investigation.
The public health team at the new suburban hub is doing most of the contact tracing work to contain the Butcher Club outbreak.
“There could be more than one,” Andrews said shortly after announcing the locations of the remaining two suburban contact tracing hubs that were flagged last month.
The Prime Minister said the decentralized contact tracing model, praised by leading epidemiologists and described by Scott Morrison as the “gold standard” for contact tracing, would be a permanent feature of Victoria’s public health team. It was.
Professor Sutton welcomed the announcement and described it as a “really important evolution” to address infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and legionellosis and to rapidly expand the workforce as needed.
“I’ve been advocating decentralized public health functions for a long time,” said Professor Sutton.
“The ability to understand that field intelligence is much better, agility and flexibility, and surge capabilities are much better because of the ongoing deployment.
“This is an opportunity to gain experience and build an immediate asset public health qualification.”
Andrews hopes that regulations will be further relaxed on October 19, “as confident as possible” that the state’s 14-day average will drop to less than five cases a day in two weeks. Stated.
“The Victorian region is in a different location today than it was three or four weeks ago. Hopefully it will be October 18th or 19th. So, just two weeks later, Metro Melbourne will be different. It will be the place of. “He said.
“Sure, it will be a very different place in the weeks and months. We need to evolve in a safe and steady way. I’m sure we can.”
According to Professor Sutton, internal DHHS modeling explains the assumption that people can flock to beaches and parks in large numbers when the weather warms, forming thresholds and timelines set in the roadmap. Did.
“Alan [Cheng] The serious outbreaks are very vulnerable in the last 20, 30, and 50 cases, in the sense that they depend on who they are and how they behave. talked. That’s their connection. “
“Therefore, modeling only shows a kind of map on the path, but it can’t tell you exactly what it will look like when you get there.”
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Sumeyya is a political reporter for The Age.