Australia

Valley tips, best bets and a preview of the Moa Stakes meeting

News Corp analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at the Group 1 Moir Stakes meeting at The Valley on Friday night.

best bet

ASFOORA (Race 5, 8th)
Asfora was the dominant opener at Sandown earlier this month. She has been placed in groups and she should be hard to beat again.

value bet

GLINT OF HOPE (Race 8, No.8)
Glint Of Hope finished well when Flemington’s first up was not far away. She enjoys 1600m and never strays far.

early quaddie

1, 2, 10, 11/2, 4, 5, 8/1, 3, 7, 15/3, 4, 5, 9

$100 Flexi at 39.06%

BIG6

1, 3, 7, 15/3, 4, 5, 9/5, 8/4, 8, 9/3, 4, 9, 12/1, 2, 6, 8

$100 Flexi at 6.51%

quaddie

Race 6: 5, 8

Race 7: 4, 8, 9

Race 8: 3, 4, 9, 12

Race 9: 1, 2, 6, 8

$100 flexi at 104.16 percent

RACE 1: Aspect Kitchen Plate (1200m)

A soft track is expected for Friday night’s Moa Stakes meeting. EL PADRINO (1) moved forward and fought well in the first closeup of the level listed. OCEANS ABOVE (12) scored easily on his only run last time and would have had time to grow. KAYGEEBEE (11) bolted on debut and was able to measure up so far. (10) enjoys a drop in his class debut and would be much better suited for that outing.

Recommended bets: El Padrino victory.

Tab Market Mover: Sharaman $4.20 – $3.80

RACE 2: Group 3 Scarborough S (1200m)

BOUND FOR HOME (5) struggled to pull off a surprise victory in Caulfield’s first-up and finished a solid second in Flemington’s second-up last time. Expecting another strong performance in the Valley, PRAIRIE FLOWER (8) is well suited and measurable for his two promising efforts this time around. QUEEN OF THE BALL (2) finished the race in good shape in Sydney and should be around the mark. TROACH (4) did well last time at his The Valley and it’s worth thinking about again.

Recommended bets: Bound for home to win.

Tab Market Mover: English Riviera $4.80 – $3.70.

Race 3: MSC Sign Handicap (1200m)

SNAPPER (7) is a specialist in The Valley and has great muzzle velocity. He was hit less than three lengths last time here at Group 1 level, so it should be hard to beat. CLEMENCEAU (3) will be the hardest to beat after his strong first-up run last time at Rosehill. SHARP RESPONSE (15) raced well from the start, including the stakes at Bendigo, and raced consistently last time. NOT TO BE MIST (1) is fresh and should stand out despite the tricky gates.

Recommended bets: Snapper wins.

Tab Market Mover: Clemenceau $2.8- – $2.25.

RACE 4: Group 2 Stat Stakes (1600m)

It was a tricky race, but Muramasa (9) was able to measure up so far on the strength of his impressive debut win in last sale. He advanced and continued to fight just short of Flemington’s promising Berkeley Square. He moves forward again and is less likely to fall. The VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (3) ran well here last time to get up to the last minute, so it would be well suited for that outing. TIJUANA (4) runs hard behind her square at Barkley and looks good for 1600m.

Recommended bets: One way Muramasa.

Tab Market Mover: Tijuana $3.20 – $2.80

RACE 5: 55 Second Challenge Heat 1 (955m)

ASFOORA (8) is a smart mare heading into more difficult races and should be hard to beat with the fitness from her impressive first win at Sandown. GALENUS (5) chased home Galenus as he restarted on Sandown’s first-up and he is the second-up winner. YULONG COMMAND (4) hasn’t scored the first goal yet, but Zahe has an unbeatable record around the Valley and has popped up well in Flemington leading up to this. ROSE QUARTZ (7) is undefeated first and has good enough results in trials and jump-outs to show he has a good chance of coming forward.

Recommended bets: Asfora wins.

Tab Market Mover: Asfora $2.90 – $2.40.

RACE 6: Group 3 JRC CUP (2040m)

A tricky version of the JRA Cup made even more difficult by the scratch of the non-conforming. DESERT ICON (8) enjoyed a good run before scoring at this course last time, dropping to 54kg despite winning well in third place. GREAT HOUSE (4) runs well behind Makram’s first up and has a great second up record while continuing to race on this expedition. AURORA’S SYMPHONY (7) did his best on the restart, ranking in The His Valley both times. MAKRAM (7) struggled to get his second place finish, but should get there if he handles his The Valley.

Recommended bets: Desert icon for winning.

Tab Market Mover: Macram $4.60 – $4.

RACE 7: Group 1 Moire S (1000m)

Speedsters compete for $1 million in the Moire S. ROTHFIRE (3) looks to remain undefeated over the 1000 m after winning on his McEwen S. BELLA NIPOTINA (9) fought well to score first and raced well on soft ground with The Valley, she doesn’t worry. ZOUSTYLE (4) tried hard to lead in the McEwen Stakes and should give him something to chase once again. COOLANGATTA (12) is much better for her first effort and should be harder for her to hold up.

Recommended bets: Losfire to win.

Tab Market Mover: Rossfire $4.80 – $4.40.

RACE 8: Group 2 Stock Stakes (1600m)

A tough finish for a punter in the Stocks Stakes, but it’s worth a one-way bet to use GLINT OF HOPE (8) after she chases well when not far off on restarting at Flemington. She will enjoy traveling 1600m. DEFIANT DIVA (6) steps up in this class after trying hard last time at Sundown and will do well. KISSONALLFOURCHEEKS (1) ran well to win the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington. FOXY FRIDA (2) went well from the start and is worth including again.

Recommended bets: radiance of hope.

Tab Market Mover: Foxy Frida $8 – $6.

first published as Valley Tip: Rothfire is a good bet in Group 1 More Stakes

Valley tips, best bets and a preview of the Moa Stakes meeting

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