The number of unexplained “mystery” cases measured between September 24th and October 7th in the last two weeks has dropped to 10... According to state health agency statistics, there is one new case of mystery coronavirus confirmed in Victoria since yesterday.
The 14-day average for new cases in Victoria was expected to be less than 5 as Melbourne moved from the blockade on October 19 to Step 3 of the government’s original roadmap. The plan also intended to reduce the number of mystery cases to five or less between October 3 and October 16 in order to ease the restrictions on schedule.
Melbourne is now within its important two weeks. This means that the number of cases you see each day directly determines whether your goals are being met.
Today’s additional mystery incident results in a total number of incidents with unknown sources recorded in Victoria from October 3-5.
In short, this means that Victoria will no longer be able to record mystery incidents in order to maintain its goals.
With 55 new cases recorded in the last 6 days, the total number of daily cases recorded to reach the 14-day moving average goal in the next 9 days cannot exceed 15 ..
In Melbourne, many restrictions were to be relaxed on October 19, including the 5 km rule and restrictions on retail, hairdressing and outdoor dining. This date was originally set to October 26th, but has been carried forward.
5 km radius rule for review
According to Professor Brett Sutton, Melbourne’s five-kilometer radius rule is “evaluated” alongside all blockades this week.
Despite confirming that the state did not completely break out of the blockade as intended, Andrews confirmed that the breach or change of the rules was definitely not off the table.
The 5 km rule has been controversial in the recent epidemiological community. Public health experts are divided on the benefits of the rule of delaying spread.
“Sure, we look at all of those individual elements and try to break them apart, in opposition to the communications we’ve seen happening in the last few weeks,” says Professor Sutton. I did.
“Especially the 5km limit limits the number of households we can meet outside because of that limitation, but of course all the decisions we are considering, all the factors, are potential. It has public health benefits. Psychological or social harm. “
Andrews said the government and public health team will spend all this weekend and next week reassessing all blockades and seeing what can still be lifted next week.
“There is no guarantee that people will be discouraged or lose their sense of hope. This strategy works, but you have to do it properly,” he said.
Melbourne is now less than 50% likely to meet the October 19th threshold, according to modeling of the new Dougherty Institute released on Friday.
Professors McVernon and McCaw, who provide modeling to state governments, said individual behavior is important for controlling the spread of the virus.
“It’s clear that Melbourne can’t continue to be blocked indefinitely,” they said. “Blockade is an emergency brake for widespread community transmission.”
Professor Sutton argued that the outbreaks in the licensed industry in recent weeks “clarified” in his mind how difficult the goal of zero community infections is, but it remains a viable goal.
“I think it’s rewarding. It’s definitely rewarding. I don’t think it’s impossible,” he said.
He said the recent outbreak was caused by people who took too long to be tested and quarantined.
“Currently, what’s moving the numbers is that a few weeks ago we found that people were too late to test from the beginning of their symptoms and too late to isolate them from the beginning of their symptoms,” he said. I did.
“So they are now contributing to the case we are seeing and we need to turn it around.”
16,647 tests were processed on Friday, and 21 Victorian people are being treated for COVID-19 in the hospital.
According to Professor Sutton, 14 new cases on Saturday were primarily caused by known outbreaks, 6 linked to known clusters, and 8 under investigation as of Saturday morning.
One of the new cases is linked to Kilmore Cafe, which has five provincial town clusters.
724 people in Kilmore have been tested so far, but the cases found in Mildura earlier this week turned out to be false positives.
Boxhill cluster grows in family communication
Importantly, the outbreak at Box Hill Hospital has increased by 6 since Friday and now includes a total of 10 people.
Professor Sutton says the hospital has a legal obligation to ensure that all staff have the proper PPE, but the masks worn must be TGA approved and meet standards. He said that he was “absolutely correct.”
10 more towns to undergo sewage inspection
As of Monday, wastewater was tested on fragments of COVID-19 in 10 more regional towns in Victoria, bringing the total number of test sites across the state to 40.
Bacchus Marsh, Gizburn, Melton, Portland, Warrnambool, Hamilton, Cowes, Horsham, Bairnsdale and Kilmore are all tested under a plan announced by Health Minister Martin Foley.
“It’s very important, as we sometimes find fragments through its wastewater program, as we recently discovered in the Surf Coast area, while giving early signs that the community is out there and taking tests,” he says. I did.
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Place of originVictoria records 14 new cases of COVID-19 with no deaths