Investors Predict No Rate Cuts Until December 2025 Amid Rising Inflation

Economists are raising concerns following new data indicating that inflation in Australia remains stubbornly high, placing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in a challenging position as Australians anxiously await the next decision on interest rates.

Recent inflation figures have led investors to delay their expectations for the RBA’s first interest rate cut until December 2025. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that annual inflation rose to 3.6 percent in April, up from 3.5 percent in March. This increase was driven by significant hikes in health insurance premiums and weather-induced spikes in the prices of fruits and vegetables.

The latest inflation rate of 3.6 percent exceeded market expectations of a 3.4 percent increase, with headline inflation remaining around 3.5 percent since December. In response to these figures, investors have adjusted their predictions, now anticipating the first RBA cash rate cut in December 2025 instead of the previously expected May 2025. Markets currently price a 20 percent chance of a rate rise by September.

Adding to the complexity, the upcoming Stage 3 tax cuts, set to take effect in just a month, are expected to inject additional cash into the economy. While this stimulus will provide an average wage earner with approximately $36 extra per week, economists are concerned that it could further fuel inflation. The overall impact on the economy could result in higher prices, exacerbating the inflationary pressures.

Some economists suggest that the RBA might need to consider raising rates again to curb inflation in demand-sensitive sectors, such as consumer goods and services. This measure would aim to balance persistent inflation in less sensitive areas. However, such a move would be a significant blow to those already struggling with mortgage payments, as current figures indicate that over a million Australians are experiencing mortgage stress.

As the RBA navigates these economic challenges, the balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic stability remains delicate. The next decisions on interest rates will be crucial in shaping Australia’s economic landscape and providing relief or further strain to its citizens.

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